November 6 2006
For the week of Nov 06, 2006 — Vol. 4, Issue 45
| Last Week in Review |
| MAKING MOUNTAINS OUT OF MOLEHILLS…seems to be the specialty of the Department of Labor, as another monthly Jobs Report arrived with massive revisions to prior month’s numbers. The headline number of new jobs created in October came in at 92,000 — but the Report also added 97,000 new jobs to September’s number, and another 42,000 to August, making some serious “mountains” out of previously “molehill” Reports.
Additionally, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest rate in over five years, and Average Hourly Earnings spiked higher than expected. Combined with news received earlier in the week on slowing productivity and increasing costs of labor…this all spells a tightening labor market. If employers have to pay higher wages to attract and retain good employees, this can lead to “wage-based inflation”, meaning that businesses eventually have to pass these costs on to the consumer in the form of higher prices for their goods and services. This hot Jobs news - laced with the scent of inflation - caused Bonds to take a nose dive on Friday, and home loan rates gave back the .125% they had gained earlier in the week. So as controlling inflation is the primary concern of the Fed, this report brings up the question — what does the Fed make of this, and what will they do at their next meeting? Will the Fed remain patient, as they wait for the impact of their string of 17 rate hikes to completely filter through the economy? Or will Fed President Jeffrey “The Dissenter” Lacker have his day in the sun, and see the other Fed members agreeing with his inclination to hike? The next meeting is not until December 12th, so they will have a good amount of reports to chew on before then — including another Jobs Report - but the continuing whiff of inflation in the economy is not going unnoticed. AND GET A WHIFF OF THIS…THE CREDIT BUREAUS ARE SELLING YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION AND PROFITING FROM IT — ALL WITHOUT YOUR CONSENT! IT STINKS, BUT IT’S LEGAL…YET YOU CAN TAKE ONE SIMPLE ACTION THAT WILL PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR PRIVACY. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN WHAT TO DO NOW, AND THEN FORWARD THIS INFORMATION ON TO YOUR FRIENDS, FAMILY AND COWORKERS TOO. |
| Forecast for the Week |
| So after all the wild news last week, this coming week pales by comparison with only a few economic reports on the docket. And when the news slows, Bond prices and home loan rates tend to move more on technical factors — so let’s take a closer look at what that means for the week.
The colorful chart below shows how Bonds can become “overbought” or “oversold”, and quickly reverse direction in price. Bonds have been “overbought” lately — what does this mean? Just like any other item that suddenly becomes popular and everyone’s buying it…it can quickly go too far, and fade in luster after everyone rushes to get in. Remember “Tickle-me Elmo” a few years back, with crazed parents paying hundreds of dollars for a cheap stuffed toy? Talk about an overbought item. Then the tide turned, and Elmo graced the clearance shelves in every store — merchants couldn’t do enough to get rid of them. So back to Bonds — when they’ve been overbought, prices can change dramatically in a hurry like they did on Friday…and the damage may not be done yet. Bottom line — expect Bond prices and home loan rates to worsen slightly and then stabilize in the week ahead. Chart: Fannie Mae 6.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 03, 2006)
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| The Mortgage Market View… |
| ALERT: YOUR NAME IS BEING SOLD — TAKE ACTION NOW!
Here’s breaking news you need to know…and you need to let all your family and friends know right away as well. Having credit checked is an important and necessary step in the home buying process, as well as something that is done on a regular basis for any number of reasons — increasing a credit line on your Visa, applying for insurance, or buying a car. But very few people realize that each time their credit is checked, the “inquiry data” that the credit bureaus (Equifax, TransUnion, Innovis or Experian) has on file has now become a commodity. This information is being sold by the credit bureaus to other lenders…and also to companies that sell and resell the same names and personal information. That’s right — the credit bureaus have found a way to increase their revenues at your expense…and without your permission. These “inquiry leads” include name, address, phone numbers (including unlisted), credit score, current debt and debt history, property information, age, gender and estimated income. They are selling your personal, confidential information to competing creditors…and making millions. Your privacy is being sold, not just once, but over and over again. And lenders that purchase these leads at a premium will then do everything they can to recoup their investment and turn a hefty profit. Super sneaky bait and switch tactics are being used to lure clients away from their reputable lender. Clients have even been called by disreputable lenders and told that the lender they had been speaking to previously “passed on” the information to them, because they knew that they’d be able to offer much better interest rates and terms. Ouch! The good news is that you can make it stop, right away. And pass this information on to everyone you know — your friends, family members, neighbors and coworkers. The consumer credit reporting industry has provided a way to “opt out” and remove your name from these lists. You can contact them by phone at 1-888-567-8688 or online at www.optoutprescreen.com. You must opt out at least 48 hours prior to having your credit checked to make sure it is processed in time. You can choose a five year or lifetime option, and the lifetime option does require a signed form. If a credit report needs to be run prior to the 48 hour waiting period — at least you are aware and informed, and can be on the lookout for suspicious phone calls or mailers from someone who has purchased your data. BONUS: Opting out will also protect you from “pre-approved credit offers” arriving via mail…one of the leading causes of identity theft in the US. You certainly have the right to shop for the best professional to meet your lending needs — but this should be done when and how YOU choose, not being done without your consent or permission. Looking around should be on your terms, not being done as a sneak attack, because they think you won’t know better. And unfortunately, these unsolicited marketing tactics are a nuisance and intrusive, but quite legal. So take your privacy back. Take five minutes right now — opt out, and pass it on. Refuse to be a part of this system. |
| The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar |
| Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 06 – November 10
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