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Jan
30

For the week of Jan 29, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 5

Last Week in Review

“WHO TOLD YOU YOU’RE ALLOWED TO RAIN ON MY PARADE?” Bob Merrill Well…like it or not, last week’s economic news continued to rain on the parade for Bond prices and home loan rates. Most of the reports showed stronger than expected data and signs of a strong economy. This tends to be bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, as on the heels of good news, investors tend to pull money from safe-haven Bonds and inject them into Stocks, which have a better chance of profiting from a strong US economy. Overall, home loan rates worsened by about .125%.

Decent news on the housing front, as New Home Sales came in better than expectations, and while Existing Home Sales were slightly less than expected, both enjoyed improved paces of inventory. Looking at last year, 2006 represented the 3rd best existing home sale market on record. But the media is already putting a doom and gloom spin on the story, making a buzz about the steep drop from 2005 to 2006, and the fact that sales haven’t fallen off this much year-over-year since the early 80’s. But some important considerations: first, 2006 is coming off a record year in 2005, so to see a drop off in record levels is not unexpected. Second, the media is comparing the drop in year-over-year sales to the early 80’s - but in 1982 the national unemployment rate was 9.7%…more than double the current unemployment rate. Many experts believe that we will look back at August 2006 as the bottom of the housing market.

BUT IF YOU’RE ON THE MARKET TO FIND A NEW JOB…AND ALSO ON THE MARKET FOR A NEW LOVE…BETTER THINK TWICE ABOUT YOUR ONLINE IMAGE BEFORE TURNING IN YOUR RESUME. BE SURE TO READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

Hold onto your hat…this week features a juicy and potentially market moving economic calendar. We’ll get a look at the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE); the always intriguing monthly Jobs Report; and if that weren’t enough action, the next interest rate decision and policy statement from the Fed.

The most recent reports seem to indicate that inflation is cooling, and responding to the Fed’s long string of rate hikes during 2005 and 2006. But they know they need to keep an ever-vigilant eye open. Some Fed members have felt that more hikes are needed - most notably, Fed President Jeffrey “the Dissenter” Lacker, whose next turn to officially vote won’t happen for a few years. Will new voting members voice the same concerns? We’ll soon find out as the news unfolds this week. If the reports of the week show inflation moving higher, or if Friday brings a hot jobs number - Bonds could move lower and cause home loan rates to move higher.

But…one technical factor in favor of Bonds and home loan rates holding their ground is a nice floor of support, just underfoot present levels, as seen in the chart below. Although Bond pricing and home loan rates have worsened slightly since the beginning of the year, this level might just help stop the bleeding if the upcoming news does indeed come in hot.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 26, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Thinking about a job change? Better think about your online image.

Many people go online to look for love, friendship and camaraderie, advertising themselves to be found by the interested or like-minded. But be careful…employers are now jumping into the “Googling” game to see what you might have left out of your resume.

CareerBuilder.com recently released some findings that might make you rethink and retool your online image. This popular site for job hunters surveyed hiring managers, and found that 26% of them say they use internet search engines such as Google or Yahoo to research job applicants. Further, 12% say they use “social networking sites” to do the same. Most interestingly, a whopping 51% percent of the employers who did this type of diligence on job applicants admitted they did not hire the candidates based on what they found!

A potential employer doesn’t need - or want - to know that a job applicant likes candlelit dinners and horseback riding in the nude. And while hobbies might provide a creative outlet that helps manage stress, finding out a candidate is the President and founding member of the National Toilet Paper Roll Artists Organization…well, it could cause a hiring manager to wonder if your interests and skills really match the job being interviewed for.

So be picky about what you post! Use pseudonyms if you need to interact with others who collect plastic spoons or engage in dog barking competitions. Don’t put anything on a dating site that you wouldn’t want your grandmother to read about you. The internet has become the online equivalent of that place where “everybody knows your name”. All a potential employer or client has to do is “Google You”. Depending on what they find, your chances of success could change…and you might never know why.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 29 – February 02

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Economic Report
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The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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