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Feb
26

MMG February 26 2007

Mortgage Market Guide   5:20 pm     
For the week of Feb 26, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 9

 

Last Week in Review

“INFORMATION IS PRETTY THIN STUFF, UNLESS MIXED WITH EXPERIENCE.” Clarence Day Just as expected, the economic news and information was super thin last week…and when that happens, Traders scrounge around looking for information to trade on, and often find extra significance in financial events that might ordinarily be overlooked. Home loan rates bumped around a bit midweek, but ended up almost exactly where they started, with rates remaining stable overall.

Thursday and Friday brought headlines from European markets, with the Italian Prime Minister tendering a surprise resignation, and weak economic news from Germany. Additionally, the US Treasury auctioned off $13 Billion in 5-year notes, and the level of foreign buying of these notes was much lower than expected. Strong foreign demand for our Bonds has helped keep our US Bond prices high and interest rates low - so the auctions are important to watch.

News from other US financial markets showed stocks might be ripe for a move lower. In fact, the S&P 500 has gone almost 1000 trading days without suffering a 10% decline, the second longest stretch in history. So something to watch - if Stocks do reverse, Bond prices and home loan rates may benefit, as money flows out of Stocks and into Bonds.

SPEAKING OF MONEY FLOWING…TAX SEASON IS UPON US, AND FOR MANY HOUSEHOLDS, IT SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY DIRECTION MONEY WILL BE FLOWING IS OUT! BUT IF YOU’RE A HOMEOWNER, YOU MIGHT HAVE A “TAX LEAK” THAT CAN POSIBLY BE STOPPED UP, AND POTENTIALLY SAVE YOURSELF THOUSANDS OF TAX DOLLARS. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

Next week, Traders will have to be at the top of their game, and be ready to deal with some fast and furious economic calendar action. In the manufacturing sector, we’ll have the Durable Goods Orders report on Tuesday, the Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index on Wednesday, and the national ISM Index on Thursday. In Housing, we’ll see Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, New Home Sales on Wednesday, and Construction Spending on Thursday. Other important economic news will include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Preliminary 4th Quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the Personal Income and Spending report…and if that weren’t enough, the critically significant Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation data on Thursday.

If the news of the week comes in looking like the economy is hot, with higher inflation to match, expect to see Bond prices worsen and home loan rates increase. If the news shows some economic weakness and reduced inflation, Bond prices and home loan rates will improve. So hold on to your hat - and stay in touch with me for updates throughout the week!

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 23, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Income tax, sales tax, estate tax, excise tax, alternative minimum tax…and just when you thought you’d paid them all…along comes your property tax bill as a homeowner. But did you know that the National Taxpayers Union estimates that as many as 60% of homes are assessed for too high of a value, resulting in an incorrectly larger property tax bill? Chances are good you might be in that group of people paying too much, so taking the time to review your property tax bill could save you a nice chunk of change.

The good news is that it’s easy.

First, contact your local tax assessor’s office and ask for someone in the reassessment area. Find out when appeals are heard, and how the process for submitting a property tax appeal works. Additionally, ask for a copy of your property card. Review the card and confirm that the basic information about your property is correct. For example, is the square footage and number of rooms for your home accurate? If the number is incorrect, the county may change the assessment without a formal appeal. If everything on the property card is correct but the assessed value still seems too high, your next step is to gather the following documentation to support an appeal. And don’t be surprised if the assessed value is lower than what you think the market value for your home is - many counties use a formula which uses a percentage of market value to determine assessed value. Ask what the formula is, because an assessment which is less than market value still might be too high.

If you have a current appraisal that supports the value being lower using recent market-value information, many counties will accept a copy of the appraisal with the appeal. If the appraisal is outdated, you can order a new one - just call me for a referral to a great appraiser. You can also visit the local assessor’s office or search online, and look through the public records for other homes that have similar features to yours, but have lower assessments. Additionally, contact me to get in touch with a great Realtor who knows your area. They will be able to give you current market information for your neighborhood, and help you see how your market value and assessed value stacks up against your neighbors.

Submitting an appeal is generally a fairly simple process, but make sure to take the time to fill out all forms in advance and be prepared with your documentation if there is an in-person hearing that needs to take place.

More good news - according to the National Taxpayers Union, about 33% of property tax appeals succeed! Taking the time to review the accuracy of a tax bill could easily save you hundreds of dollars per year, adding up to thousands of dollars during the time you own your home. Please feel free to contact me for more information on this money-saving tip.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 26 – March 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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