Home     Forum     About     Advertise     FAQ

Jan
18

January 8 2006

Mortgage Market Guide   12:12 pm     

For the week of Jan 08, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 2

Last Week in Review

“START ME UP…IF YOU START ME UP I’LL NEVER STOP” (Rolling Stones) And the New Year sure “started up” at double speed, but the action was destined to make more than a few grown men cry before the week was out. Bond pricing had improved throughout the holiday shortened trading week, and the stage was set for the high impact Jobs Report to be unleashed on Friday. But some interesting moves were going on behind the scenes on Thursday afternoon…here’s what happened.

Late in the day on Thursday, economists reduced their official estimate for Friday’s Jobs Report number from 115,000 to 100,000, clearly indicating much lowered expectations in new job growth. This was largely based on ADP - the nation’s largest payroll processor - coming out earlier in the week saying that their numbers indicated net job losses for the previous month, no gains at all! Additionally, the Fed Meeting Minutes showed the Fed believes that US job growth is cooling. So…when Bond traders saw the late change in analysts formal expectations, they gobbled up even more Bonds ahead of the Jobs Report - figuring that the number would likely come in low, Bond prices would rally, and home loan rates would improve.

But this was not to be. When the actual numbers from the Jobs Report hit, Traders were stunned to see an unexpectedly high December Jobs number of 167,000, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at a very low 4.5%. Additionally, the Average Hourly Earnings in December shot 8 cents higher or 0.5%, far ahead of the 0.3% rise expected. This brings the average US hourly rate of pay to just over $17. And a deeper look at the hourly earnings figure showed year over year wages increased by 4.2%, which is the highest in four years!

Traders quickly realized they were positioned on the wrong side of the market and began to sell, sparking a move lower in Bond pricing, and giving back some of the gains made previously in the week. But after the smoke cleared, Bonds still ended up on the plus side for the week overall, with home loan rates improving by about .125% across the board.

JUST LIKE THE PROGRAMMING OF VCR’S IN YEARS PAST…THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS BYPASSING MANY OF US WITH THEIR NEW LINGO AND ABBREVIATIONS NOW FOUND EVERYWHERE, IN EMAILS, TEXT MESSAGES, INSTANT MESSENGER, MESSAGE BOARDS. AND IF YOU AREN’T ON BOARD WITH TSL (TEXTING AS A SECOND LANGUAGE), YOU MIGHT BE SOL (SORELY OUT OF LUCK). SO IF YOU’RE TRYING TO COMMUNICATE WITH SPEED AND EASE IN TODAY’S TECH-SAVVY WORLD, READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW…AND BECOME PART OF THE ABBREVIATION NATION.

Forecast for the Week

So…will the action cool down in the coming week, or will the wild ride continue for Bonds and home loan rates? In terms of economic news, the week ahead will be fairly slow, until Friday’s potentially high impact Retail Sales Report. And whenever the market lacks economic reports and data to trade on, technical indicators like historic highs, lows and trendlines will generally take center stage.

And the technicals are on our side, in terms of seeing Bond pricing and home loan rates stabilizing, and perhaps even seeing more improvement in the coming days. Take a look at the chart below, which shows how Bonds have used the 50-day Moving Average (which is basically the average of where Bond pricing has been for the past 50 days) as a floor of support. This 50-day Moving Average is rising underneath Bonds feet, helping pricing move higher, meaning home loan rates move lower. And even after Friday’s decline, Bonds clawed their way back above the 50-day Moving Average…and if they can hold their ground during the coming week, the improving trend appears to be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.

Bottom line: in the absence of any surprises during the week, Bond pricing and home loan rates should stabilize and perhaps improve slightly, due to the positive technical picture currently in place.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 05, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

WYSIWYG

“What You See Is What You Get?” Whoa…not when it’s loaded into a long acronym like the above. And unless you have a teenager or tech-savvy kid - or are a text-messaging junkie in your own right - these acronyms can leave you scratching your head and feeling very “out of the loop” when someone hits you with one. The good news? You’re not alone, and there’s an answer.

Speed and ease are the names of the game, and messages with jumbled letters have now become a part of our everyday lives. Everywhere you turn, codes, abbreviations and acronyms are being used…but these quick methods of communication can leave you frustrated, confused and unable to respond if you just can’t break the code.

So where do you turn if you need to find a solution in a hurry? Pulling out the dusty Webster’s dictionary won’t help…but visiting www.stands4.com will.

With a few clicks of the mouse, you can access acronyms and abbreviations, and even search by industry, like medical, internet, computing, business, international and more. Simply enter the confusing phrase in the search engine, or search from A to Z by clicking on the first letter of the acronym or abbreviation…and voila…a list will appear with the most likely answers to your query. And, if you want to start including a few acronyms or abbreviations into your own emails or text messages, but do not know the secret codes, perform a reverse lookup. Just enter the phrase, hit search, and a list will appear.

With the increased demand for text and instant messaging, expanding your tech vocabulary and learning a few codes will allow you to communicate with confidence and ease. And if you really want to be a hip parent, the next time you receive a message from your child loaded up with CUL8R (See You Later) and BRB (Be Right Back)…log onto the site, grab a few codes in response, and send your own abbreviated message…you will leave them #:-) and LOL (Shocked and Laughing Out Loud)!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 08 – January 12

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

No Comments Make A Comment

No comments yet.

Comments RSS Feed   TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.