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Jan
18

December 11 2006

Mortgage Market Guide   12:06 pm     

For the week of Dec 11, 2006 — Vol. 4, Issue 50

Last Week in Review

“THE TROUBLE WITH UNEMPLOYMENT IS THAT THE MINUTE YOU WAKE UP IN THE MORNING, YOU’RE ON THE JOB.” Slappy White And a look at the job market in the US was the big news for last week. The Department of Labor reported 132,000 new jobs were created in November, and added another 42,000 jobs via revisions of the past two month’s numbers. This was better than analysts were expecting, who were forecasting about 105,000 new jobs to be added.

So overall this is a very good picture, although the rate of unemployment crept up slightly to 4.5%, and Hourly Earnings were lower than expected, showing that the average worker in the US earns $16.94 per hour. Now remember that Bond pricing and home loan rates tend to worsen on positive economic news like a strong jobs number - so had it not been for the two factors of slightly worse than expected Unemployment Rates and Hourly Earnings, the damage to home loan rates could have been much worse. But Bonds did fall on Friday afternoon, meaning home loan rates could be slightly higher heading into next week.

RETAILERS SURE HAVE FULL TIME JOBS DURING THIS SEASON, AS HOLIDAY SPENDING REVS INTO FULL GEAR. BUT BE AWARE OF THIS LITTLE TRICK MANY RETAIL STORES USE TO SAVE THEMSELVES A FEW BUCKS WHEN YOU COME TO BUY…AND SAVE YOURSELF A HASSLE AT THE REGISTER.

Forecast for the Week

So following the excitement in the market last week - the coming week brings even more, as the economic calendar is loaded with high impact releases being headlined by Tuesday’s Fed Meeting, after which they will release their Monetary Decision and Policy Statement.

The Fed has said it remains concerned about the core rate of inflation which is “uncomfortably high” at 2.4% year-over-year and “out of their comfort zone”, which is in a range of 1 to 2%. The Fed is likely to once again remain in a “paused” mode at this meeting, but if the Fed continues to express concerns about inflation in the words of the Policy Statement, Bonds may move lower and cause home loan rates to rise following the statement on Tuesday.

Bonds and home loan rates are hurt by inflation…or even the hints of inflation…since it erodes the buying power of the fixed dollar amount of return that a Bond provides. And speaking of inflation…the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Friday and this report has been a market mover of late, as inflation takes center stage. If the scent of inflation remains in the air in this release, home loan rates may edge higher at the end of the week. But if inflation appears to ease a bit, home loan rates may improve.

Chart: Fannie Mae 6.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 08, 2006)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

MINIMUM PURCHASE REQUIRED?

Ever been faced with this dilemma when out shopping? You walk up to the register to pay for an item that costs $8. The cashier rings it up, and when you reach into your wallet to pull out a credit card to pay, the cashier explains that the “store policy” requires a minimum purchase of $25 when paying with a credit card. Frustrated and embarrassed, you realize that you are short on cash, do not have a checkbook, and are forced to either pass on the item or make a mad dash to the closest ATM, pull out the cash, and maybe even get hit with a service charge for using the ATM.

But did you know that retailers cannot require a minimum charge for merchandise? Here is the scoop.

Many of us think that when a retailer refuses to accept a credit card for a small purchase, it is the credit card company that is enforcing this policy. Not true. This is simply a policy that has been put in place by the store. Basically, the store is charged a fee by the credit card company for each purchase that is made by credit card. Sometimes the fee eats into the profit the retailer would make on a purchase and therefore many stores require a minimum charge to ensure that the profit will cover the service charge. But the reality is that any store which accepts Visa or MasterCard cannot require a minimum purchase. Credit card companies want their customers to use credit cards, no matter how big or small the purchase may be.

So what does a consumer do to overcome this obstacle when shopping?

Ask to speak to the manager, and explain that credit card companies do not require a minimum purchase and stores have to accept a credit card as form of payment, no matter what the amount of the charge. If the store still insists on a minimum purchase, contact the issuer of the credit card and report the merchant. Small purchases add up, and with more and more people using credit cards to rack up miles or earn points for cash or rewards, knowing the facts about what you can charge could payoff big in the long run!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 11 – December 15

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

1 Comment Make A Comment

a96616d1ac79c08f3be3 October 12, 2007 @ 2:54 pm

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