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Feb
26
For the week of Feb 26, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 9

 

Last Week in Review

“INFORMATION IS PRETTY THIN STUFF, UNLESS MIXED WITH EXPERIENCE.” Clarence Day Just as expected, the economic news and information was super thin last week…and when that happens, Traders scrounge around looking for information to trade on, and often find extra significance in financial events that might ordinarily be overlooked. Home loan rates bumped around a bit midweek, but ended up almost exactly where they started, with rates remaining stable overall.

Thursday and Friday brought headlines from European markets, with the Italian Prime Minister tendering a surprise resignation, and weak economic news from Germany. Additionally, the US Treasury auctioned off $13 Billion in 5-year notes, and the level of foreign buying of these notes was much lower than expected. Strong foreign demand for our Bonds has helped keep our US Bond prices high and interest rates low - so the auctions are important to watch.

News from other US financial markets showed stocks might be ripe for a move lower. In fact, the S&P 500 has gone almost 1000 trading days without suffering a 10% decline, the second longest stretch in history. So something to watch - if Stocks do reverse, Bond prices and home loan rates may benefit, as money flows out of Stocks and into Bonds.

SPEAKING OF MONEY FLOWING…TAX SEASON IS UPON US, AND FOR MANY HOUSEHOLDS, IT SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY DIRECTION MONEY WILL BE FLOWING IS OUT! BUT IF YOU’RE A HOMEOWNER, YOU MIGHT HAVE A “TAX LEAK” THAT CAN POSIBLY BE STOPPED UP, AND POTENTIALLY SAVE YOURSELF THOUSANDS OF TAX DOLLARS. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

Next week, Traders will have to be at the top of their game, and be ready to deal with some fast and furious economic calendar action. In the manufacturing sector, we’ll have the Durable Goods Orders report on Tuesday, the Chicago Purchase Manager’s Index on Wednesday, and the national ISM Index on Thursday. In Housing, we’ll see Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, New Home Sales on Wednesday, and Construction Spending on Thursday. Other important economic news will include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Preliminary 4th Quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the Personal Income and Spending report…and if that weren’t enough, the critically significant Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation data on Thursday.

If the news of the week comes in looking like the economy is hot, with higher inflation to match, expect to see Bond prices worsen and home loan rates increase. If the news shows some economic weakness and reduced inflation, Bond prices and home loan rates will improve. So hold on to your hat - and stay in touch with me for updates throughout the week!

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 23, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Income tax, sales tax, estate tax, excise tax, alternative minimum tax…and just when you thought you’d paid them all…along comes your property tax bill as a homeowner. But did you know that the National Taxpayers Union estimates that as many as 60% of homes are assessed for too high of a value, resulting in an incorrectly larger property tax bill? Chances are good you might be in that group of people paying too much, so taking the time to review your property tax bill could save you a nice chunk of change.

The good news is that it’s easy.

First, contact your local tax assessor’s office and ask for someone in the reassessment area. Find out when appeals are heard, and how the process for submitting a property tax appeal works. Additionally, ask for a copy of your property card. Review the card and confirm that the basic information about your property is correct. For example, is the square footage and number of rooms for your home accurate? If the number is incorrect, the county may change the assessment without a formal appeal. If everything on the property card is correct but the assessed value still seems too high, your next step is to gather the following documentation to support an appeal. And don’t be surprised if the assessed value is lower than what you think the market value for your home is - many counties use a formula which uses a percentage of market value to determine assessed value. Ask what the formula is, because an assessment which is less than market value still might be too high.

If you have a current appraisal that supports the value being lower using recent market-value information, many counties will accept a copy of the appraisal with the appeal. If the appraisal is outdated, you can order a new one - just call me for a referral to a great appraiser. You can also visit the local assessor’s office or search online, and look through the public records for other homes that have similar features to yours, but have lower assessments. Additionally, contact me to get in touch with a great Realtor who knows your area. They will be able to give you current market information for your neighborhood, and help you see how your market value and assessed value stacks up against your neighbors.

Submitting an appeal is generally a fairly simple process, but make sure to take the time to fill out all forms in advance and be prepared with your documentation if there is an in-person hearing that needs to take place.

More good news - according to the National Taxpayers Union, about 33% of property tax appeals succeed! Taking the time to review the accuracy of a tax bill could easily save you hundreds of dollars per year, adding up to thousands of dollars during the time you own your home. Please feel free to contact me for more information on this money-saving tip.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 26 – March 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Feb
19

For the week of Feb 19, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 8

Presidents Day

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. As the financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day, I hope you enjoy the special article below on Daylight Savings - including the whole scoop on the new change for 2007, as well as some interesting Daylight Savings stories you’ll want to share with friends and family!

The MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY is the industry’s leading publication of this type, and I am pleased to provide this valuable resource to you. If you feel any of your family, friends, clients or associates would benefit from keeping up-to-date on market and economic trends in this easy to read format, please let me know, and I would be more than happy to add them free of charge.

Daylight Saving Time

SPRING FORWARD, FALL BACK…OR IS THAT SPRING BACK AND FALL FORWARD?

In any event, Daylight Saving Time (DST) will be springing a bit further this year. Back in 2005, Congress enacted the Energy Policy Act, which will extend DST by one month - beginning earlier in the spring and lasting later into the fall - beginning on March 11th and ending on November 4th.

Originally the bill was written to extend Daylight Saving by two months, but some very verbal opponents fought the change. Farmers say that DST has a negative impact on their livestock in general - as it is tough for them to adapt to the time change, and they therefore produce less milk, eggs, etc. Because DST is not followed uniformly around the world, airlines claim that it might mean many missed international flight connections. Additionally, TV and Cable stations argued that they will lose viewers and advertising revenue, simply due to less time spent in front of the television because of more time spent outdoors in daylight. So a compromise of one additional month of DST was reached - and Congress did retain the right to revert back to the old dates if the change proves to be widely unpopular, or if the energy savings aren’t significant.

Why the change?

After making the adjustment to getting up an hour early, Americans overwhelmingly like Daylight Saving Time. There is simply more sunlight in the evenings to enjoy the outdoors and get things done. Additionally, there may be emotional benefits, as we typically feel better with more daylight. Plus, increased hours of daylight saves energy on a national scale. Less electricity is needed, as fewer lights are turned on as early in the evening…and with energy costs so high, even a small amount of savings is very welcome.

And brighter is safer - studies have shown that the DST shift reduces traffic accidents. An increase in accidents in the dark mornings is more than offset by the evening decrease in accidents, due to the increased visibility gained with more sunlight. Halloween will be much safer too - child pedestrian deaths are four times higher on Halloween than any other night of the year. Now, young trick-or-treaters are able to spend an extra hour out getting treats in the light. Candy manufacturers are happy too, as they’ve lobbied for years to have DST extended through Halloween.

A study by the US Law Enforcement Admin also determined that crime is consistently lower during DST, with violent crimes down as much as 10 - 13%. For many crimes, like mugging, darkness is a factor - so more light in the evening hours reduces these types of crimes.

And throughout its long history, Daylight Saving Time has had a remarkable and sometimes unexpected impact.

A man was actually able to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War using a Daylight Saving Time loophole. When he was born, it was just after midnight, DST. When he was drafted, he successfully argued that in his home state of Delaware, standard time - not DST - was the official time for recording births. So he was technically born on the previous date - which had a much higher draft lottery number - and he was able to avoid being drafted.

In September 1999, the West Bank was on Daylight Saving Time, while Israel had switched back to standard time. A group of West Bank terrorists prepared some timed bombs - but misunderstood the time change - and the bombs exploded early, killing the terrorists themselves, rather than the intended victims - two busloads of innocent citizens.

In the 1950’s and 60’s, each state and locality was permitted to choose start and end DST dates as they desired. During 1965, Minneapolis and St Paul - which are considered one metropolitan area - didn’t agree on start dates, and for a period of time, these Twin Cities had a one hour time change between them. And on one Ohio to Virginia bus route, passengers technically had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles!

To keep to their published timetables, Amtrak trains cannot leave a station before the scheduled time. So when the clocks “fall back” in the fall, all trains that are running on time actually stop at 2:00am - the official time of DST change - and wait one hour before resuming their routes. In the spring, the routes instantaneously become one hour behind schedule, but they just keep going and do their best to make up the time.

So Daylight Saving Time sure can have some unexpected impact - and we’ll all have to be ready early this year.

In particular, be sure to double-check all of your electronic devices and confirm that the time is correct. Although you may be accustomed to your computer and digital clock in your car automatically updating, the recent change of dates for daylight saving time may require that these devices be manually changed, as they now may not be ready to update to the correct time on the correct date!

As always, please feel free to pass on this article to family, friends and coworkers who might find this interesting as well. And although we’ll be losing an hour on March 11th, I’m always happy to make time for you - so if I can be of any assistance to you, please don’t hesitate to call or email.

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Feb
12
For the week of Feb 12, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 7

 

Last Week in Review

GOING ONCE….GOING TWICE….SOLD, FOR $36 BILLION! That’s right, if you were in the market to buy new Bonds; this was your week, with $36 Billion in new Bond issues being offered by the US Treasury. The auctions were well received throughout the week – it’s always important to gauge investor appetite during these auctions, as lackluster buying means that buyers feel that rates will be higher down the road. But last week’s offering was well received by both US and foreign investors, which means that they feel that the rate market will remain somewhat stable ahead. Foreign buyers who seek a safe, high rate of return on their money love our US Bonds – and their continued investment in our Bond market has helped keep Bond prices high, and therefore, home loan interest rates low. Based on the good result of the auctions, Bond prices and home loan rates improved throughout the week, but then lost some ground on Friday to end the week right back where they started.

So what happened Friday? First, some Traders saw prices as topping out, and decided to sell and take their profits. Additionally, there were several Fed officials on tour, including St. Louis Fed President William Poole. Poole mentioned increased defaults in home loans to risky borrowers, and said that rates may rise as a result. The talk of rising home loan rates was enough to spook Traders ahead of the weekend – and many decided to take even more chips off the table.

The Fed Chairman himself was on the speaking circuit, and an interesting comment Mr. Bernanke made had to do with the increasing differential between earnings of a four year college grad, vs. a high school grad with no college experience. A college graduate made 75% more than their high school graduate counterparts last year – a trend that has been increasing for many years. For example, in 1979, the differential between the college and high school grads earnings were 38%. Still significant, but the importance of that college diploma appears to be growing every year.

AND WHEN THE FED ISN’T ON TOUR, THEY’RE PROBABLY ON THE PHONE…AND JUST LIKE US, THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCREASING COSTS OF TELECOM SERVICES. MAYBE THEY SHOULD READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN HOW TO TRIM THEIR BILLS EVERY MONTH.

Forecast for the Week

The week ahead has a host of potentially market-moving reports…and at the heart of it will be Retail Sales coming out on Valentines Day. This report may come in a little stronger than normal due to all of the gift card purchases made during the holiday season. Stores don’t count gift cards as sales – until they are redeemed. So since gift cards were such a hot holiday item this year, many recipients may have gone on spending sprees in January, thereby leading to a potentially hot Retail Sales number this week, which could pressure home loan rates higher.

After a couple of weeks of improvement, Bond prices hit a tough ceiling and have retreated lower. Unless there is some Bond-friendly economic news in store, Bond prices will likely follow this trend, causing home loan rates to worsen slightly this week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 09, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

You’ve got your own cell phone bill, plus those of your family members, your home phone bill, your long distance bill, your internet bill…the list gets long in a hurry when it comes to paying for what are now considered “basic” telecom needs. And paying this stack of bills can be not only time consuming, but costly. This month, take a few minutes to try out these simple ideas to see if you are getting the best deal on your telecom…your savings can add up in a real hurry.

In the fast moving telecom industry, loyalty pays. Call up your current provider, and ask what benefits you might be able to gain the longer you stay their client, by locking in a longer contract, or bundling several services or lines into their company. But at the same time, watch for getting too “bundled up”…although packaged deals can simplify life and consolidate the monthly bills, convenience could be costly. Be sure to research both individually packaged telecom services and bundled packages, and then make the best cost decision.

Plus, new deals are rolled out almost every single day, so it’s worthwhile to make a quick call to see if another plan has become available that might more closely suit your needs. Take a good look at the plan you are on, and make sure that it makes sense based on your actual usage patterns. Many flat fee plans seem like a good deal, but if you are routinely not using a good percentage of those minutes, another plan might make more sense. In fact – did you know the average cell phone customer only uses 25% of the minutes they have paid for on their flat fee plan? If this is you…consider changing to a smaller package. Additionally, if your package allows for unlimited local and long-distance calls for a flat fee and you use less than 300 long-distance minutes per month, a per-minute plan may actually be less expensive than a flat fee plan. And don’t worry about dragging out all your old bills to analyze it – it takes only a quick phone call to your current provider, and they can help you quickly and easily review your usage patterns.

Being “telecom-hip” can also come with a steep price tag for all the extra bells and whistles…so make sure you really need them. Determine what features you have on your landlines and cell phones, and see what you can shave off. For example, if you select caller ID but opt out of *69, you could save a few bucks a month. And if your package has caller ID, you probably don’t need *69 anyways, which simply lets you dial back the number that just called you. With a cell phone it can be pretty cool to use the internet, send and receive pictures and video…but how much is cool costing you? This service alone could be costing as much as $20 per month, so if you’re not using it regularly, consider scratching that feature.

Telecom services are now a part of our everyday lives and expenses…so taking just a few minutes to do some research could save you big bucks every single month!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 12 – February 16

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Feb
05

MMG February 5 2007

Mortgage Market Guide   12:37 pm      Comments Off

If you can’t see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link
For the week of Feb 05, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 6

Last Week in Review

OOPS, THEY DID IT AGAIN…No, not another “wardrobe malfunction” during Super Bowl halftime, but the Department of Labor widely revising the previous reports on US job growth. Last Friday brought the monthly Jobs Report, capping off a wild week of twists and turns brought by a fat economic news calendar. And despite the ups and downs during the week, Bonds gained back enough yardage overall to find home loan rates unchanged to improved by .125%. The highly anticipated Jobs Report showed 111,000 new jobs were formed in January - and while this was below expectations of 150,000, revisions to the prior two months added another 80,000 jobs to previously reported numbers! So if you take the average revised gain of 40,000 jobs per month and add it to January…it would place the number right in line with expectations, and matching the healthy average monthly job growth of around 150,000 seen over the past year.Last Wednesday, it was no surprise when the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.25% - but indicated that they are continuing to keep a vigilant eye on inflation, and will raise rates further if inflation picks up any steam. And how timely…just following the Fed Meeting came their favorite gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, which indicated that inflation looks to be moderating. So hindsight appears to be 20/20, and the Fed likely made the right move in remaining patient with the US economy.But here’s some harsh reality - the personal savings rate remains negative for the US, showing that Americans actually spend more than we make across the board. In fact, for all of 2006, the savings rate was a negative 1.0%. This is the lowest savings rate since 1933 - during the Great Depression! If you feel your own savings plan may need some beefing up - please feel free to contact me. We can take a look at some mortgage planning strategies that might help supplement your savings, or connect you with a financial planner who can help get your savings goals on track.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME TAX PREP?? OK, ALTHOUGH IT’S NOT MOST PEOPLE’S FAVORITE TASK, SOME NEW CHANGES RECENTLY SIGNED INTO LAW JUST MIGHT MAKE GETTING READY FOR TAX TIME A LITTLE BIT MORE BEARABLE. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN ABOUT SOME OF THE NEW TAX PROVISIONS, AND HOW THEY MIGHT BENEFIT YOU!

Forecast for the Week

After last week’s line up of high impact news and reports, the economic calendar heads to the showers this week, with only a few minor releases in store. This means that technical signals may play a bigger role in the direction of home loan rates ahead. A look at the chart below shows Bond prices have bounced higher after trading near a “floor” of technical support, meaning home loan rates have improved.Bottom line: the momentum and upward trend in Bond prices could continue in the absence of market moving reports. Assuming no surprises, this could help home loan rates improve in the week ahead.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 02, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Tax time is here - and although most people look forward to their annual visit to their tax professional about as much as a dental exam, this year just might bring a few pleasant surprises. On December 20, President Bush signed the Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006. And some of the new changes just might help you.You now have an option to deduct either state and local INCOME taxes - or state and local SALES taxes, whichever is larger. If you saved all your receipts throughout the year, you can add up the total amount of sales taxes you paid and claim that amount. But let’s be realistic…very few of us actually save all our receipts - so instead, you can take the easy road, and simply click on this link: Sales Tax Deduction Calculator.If you, your spouse, or your children attend any level of college in 2006 or 2007, a hefty deduction of up to $4,000 may apply! This deduction can only be used if it provides more benefit than the Hope or Lifetime Learning Credits, which take into account your college expenses and your Adjusted Gross Income. But it applies even if you are using student loans to pay for your tuition. Definitely worth a closer look - and for more information on what you might qualify for, hit this link: Hope or Lifetime Learning Credit Info

Many teachers pay for classroom supplies from their own personal funds - but can now deduct $250 of the expense. And better yet, if the expenses exceed the $250 amount, there can be other benefits available by itemizing the supply deductions. Link here to learn more: Educator Expense Adjustment. If you aren’t a teacher yourself - being aware of how much is paid out of pocket by teachers - it may be a nice idea to ask your local school or your child’s teacher if they need any supplies donated to their classrooms.

If you feel any of the above items might apply to you, be sure to gather the additional documentation, and take the time to ask your accountant if you can benefit from these specific changes. And if you need the referral of a qualified tax professional, I’d be happy to provide a contact. Asking just a few simple questions could give you a well-deserved break!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 05 – February 09

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Jan
30

For the week of Jan 29, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 5

Last Week in Review

“WHO TOLD YOU YOU’RE ALLOWED TO RAIN ON MY PARADE?” Bob Merrill Well…like it or not, last week’s economic news continued to rain on the parade for Bond prices and home loan rates. Most of the reports showed stronger than expected data and signs of a strong economy. This tends to be bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, as on the heels of good news, investors tend to pull money from safe-haven Bonds and inject them into Stocks, which have a better chance of profiting from a strong US economy. Overall, home loan rates worsened by about .125%.

Decent news on the housing front, as New Home Sales came in better than expectations, and while Existing Home Sales were slightly less than expected, both enjoyed improved paces of inventory. Looking at last year, 2006 represented the 3rd best existing home sale market on record. But the media is already putting a doom and gloom spin on the story, making a buzz about the steep drop from 2005 to 2006, and the fact that sales haven’t fallen off this much year-over-year since the early 80’s. But some important considerations: first, 2006 is coming off a record year in 2005, so to see a drop off in record levels is not unexpected. Second, the media is comparing the drop in year-over-year sales to the early 80’s - but in 1982 the national unemployment rate was 9.7%…more than double the current unemployment rate. Many experts believe that we will look back at August 2006 as the bottom of the housing market.

BUT IF YOU’RE ON THE MARKET TO FIND A NEW JOB…AND ALSO ON THE MARKET FOR A NEW LOVE…BETTER THINK TWICE ABOUT YOUR ONLINE IMAGE BEFORE TURNING IN YOUR RESUME. BE SURE TO READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

Hold onto your hat…this week features a juicy and potentially market moving economic calendar. We’ll get a look at the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE); the always intriguing monthly Jobs Report; and if that weren’t enough action, the next interest rate decision and policy statement from the Fed.

The most recent reports seem to indicate that inflation is cooling, and responding to the Fed’s long string of rate hikes during 2005 and 2006. But they know they need to keep an ever-vigilant eye open. Some Fed members have felt that more hikes are needed - most notably, Fed President Jeffrey “the Dissenter” Lacker, whose next turn to officially vote won’t happen for a few years. Will new voting members voice the same concerns? We’ll soon find out as the news unfolds this week. If the reports of the week show inflation moving higher, or if Friday brings a hot jobs number - Bonds could move lower and cause home loan rates to move higher.

But…one technical factor in favor of Bonds and home loan rates holding their ground is a nice floor of support, just underfoot present levels, as seen in the chart below. Although Bond pricing and home loan rates have worsened slightly since the beginning of the year, this level might just help stop the bleeding if the upcoming news does indeed come in hot.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 26, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Thinking about a job change? Better think about your online image.

Many people go online to look for love, friendship and camaraderie, advertising themselves to be found by the interested or like-minded. But be careful…employers are now jumping into the “Googling” game to see what you might have left out of your resume.

CareerBuilder.com recently released some findings that might make you rethink and retool your online image. This popular site for job hunters surveyed hiring managers, and found that 26% of them say they use internet search engines such as Google or Yahoo to research job applicants. Further, 12% say they use “social networking sites” to do the same. Most interestingly, a whopping 51% percent of the employers who did this type of diligence on job applicants admitted they did not hire the candidates based on what they found!

A potential employer doesn’t need - or want - to know that a job applicant likes candlelit dinners and horseback riding in the nude. And while hobbies might provide a creative outlet that helps manage stress, finding out a candidate is the President and founding member of the National Toilet Paper Roll Artists Organization…well, it could cause a hiring manager to wonder if your interests and skills really match the job being interviewed for.

So be picky about what you post! Use pseudonyms if you need to interact with others who collect plastic spoons or engage in dog barking competitions. Don’t put anything on a dating site that you wouldn’t want your grandmother to read about you. The internet has become the online equivalent of that place where “everybody knows your name”. All a potential employer or client has to do is “Google You”. Depending on what they find, your chances of success could change…and you might never know why.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 29 – February 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Jan
24

Site Updates

Mortgage Market Guide   6:41 pm      Comments Off

For those of you who are members, you will notice that the site has undergone a radical overhaul.

Due to the encryption of the passwords on the previous software, it was impossible for me to import them.

You’ll find out the second you try your old password that it WON’T WORK.

Simply click the link for having forgotten your password and a new one will be emailed to you.  Once you log in, change your password and update your company info.

Thanks

Troy

Jan
22

January 22 2007

Mortgage Market Guide   3:04 pm      Comments Off

For the week of Jan 22, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 4

Last Week in Review

“DON’T JUST STAND THERE, BUST A MOVE” Young MC. Last week’s economic news should have been enough to make bonds and home loan rates “bust a move”, but they didn’t. “You want it, you got it”, and a flurry of stronger than expected economic reports hit the wires, indicating a resilient economy. Strong economic news usually spells good things for US businesses - which tends to push money out of Bonds and into the Stock market. We also know that strong economic data can point to higher inflation, which is the arch enemy of bonds. So when money flows out of the Bond market, the value of Bonds fall - and since home loan rates are tied to Bonds, this in turn causes home loan rates to rise.Here’s a rundown of the headlines…the inflation measuring Consumer and Producer Price Indexes (CPI and PPI) both were hotter than expected, showing some lingering inflation in the economy; Housing Starts and Building Permits were both reported as better than anticipated; Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected, indicating a strong labor market; the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was higher than estimated; and to top off the week, the Consumer Sentiment Index came in very strong - a three year high! But a closer look at the inflation numbers showed that prices are only increasing at a slightly higher pace than desired by the Fed, which keeps inflation as a concern, but not a reason to panic.

Whew! With all this strong economic news, it’s surprising that Bond prices and home loan rates just stood there. Despite some midweek bouncing around on the news, Bonds and home loan rates ended up the week only slightly worse than where they started.

AND WHILE BONDS MAY NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH, YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW MAY BE ABOUT TO BUST YOUR OWN MOVE. A CHANGE OF RESIDENCE IS SURE EXCITING, BUT THERE IS ALSO MUCH TO DO. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME TIPS ON HOW TO MOVE ON UP WITH A LOT LESS STRESS.

Forecast for the Week

This week will be a slow news week in terms of economic reports…but remember that anytime the planned economic news calendar is thin, Traders will pay more attention to other types of news and headlines, trends from other markets, and technical factors often step up to play a larger role as well.The chart below shows that on a glut of positive economic news, Bond prices moved slightly lower, but enough to fall through a “floor of support” last week - and if the trend continues this week, it could cause home loan rates to rise.

Of most interest on this week’s calendar will be New and Existing Home Sales data. From all recent reports, it appears that the housing market at large is stabilizing, so the numbers on average sale prices, inventory and volume of sales will be closely analyzed and dissected. Most feel that the housing market hit a bottom in August of 2006, and home loan rates remain very low - so if you or someone you know has been considering the purchase of a home, now may be an excellent time to make a move forward. Contact me for questions or to learn how to get this process started right away.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 19, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

Moving can be very exciting…but it can also be a bit of a pain as well. Besides packing and unpacking, there is a long list of details to be handled. Things like choosing a mover, connecting utilities, getting Internet and cable service, or subscribing to newspapers or magazines in a new area can be quite a chore. And if you forget to connect one of the utilities you could be stuck in your new home for several days without that much needed service. To ease the stress of moving and schedule new connections for all of the utilities in one convenient location, simply logon to www.whitefence.com.You can quickly compare prices for movers, phone, electricity, television, or high-speed Internet. Just select the service you wish to compare (e.g., phone, cable, electric, etc.) or enter your address on the home page, hit search, and within seconds a list of services and prices available in that area will appear. Next, click on the service of your choice to view details and pricing or comparison shop by choosing three providers. Once you determine the provider, select the service plan, complete the requested information, enter the connection date, and within minutes a confirmation will be sent to you.

If you want to change your current provider, simply hit the icon for phone, cable, or internet, select “switch provider”, complete the requested information and a list of providers in the local area will appear. Choose the new provider and the service will be changed.

Additionally, on the site you can complete a change of address form, subscribe to local newspapers, and order magazine subscriptions. Moving to a new home should be enjoyable and exciting. Using this tool can help remove a bit of the stress of moving and will also help save valuable time.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 22 – January 26

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

Jan
18

January 15 2007

Mortgage Market Guide   12:14 pm      Comments Off

For the week of Jan 15, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 3

Last Week in Review

“DISAPPOINTMENT PROVES…THAT EXPECTATIONS WERE MISTAKEN.” Mason Cooley And sure enough, the disappointing performance of Bond prices and home loan rates last week was largely the result of some unexpected news and data, which left home loan rates about .125% higher across the board.

Remember that “good” economic news tends to be “bad” for Bond prices and home loan rates for two reasons. First, because Stocks and Bonds compete for the same investor dollar - and good economic news would cause many investors to pull money out of Bonds and place it into Stocks, which generally benefit from a healthy economy. Second, good news for the US economy can also mean inflation, which is the arch-enemy of Bond prices and home loan rates, since inflation erodes the true value of a fixed return such as a Bond provides.

So back to the news - unexpectedly positive news for the housing sector arrived in the form of the Mortgage Applications Index, showing the largest percentage increases in home loan applications for purchasing and refinancing since the middle of 2005. Why was this bad news for Bonds and home loan rates? Because Bonds react poorly to potentially inflationary news, and the increase in home loan applications point to a healthier housing sector and economy - which could lead to inflation. But the real good news is that this also indicates that home loan rates are favorable, and most markets are stabilizing in terms of home values. In fact, many experts feel that August of 2006 was the bottom for the housing market. So if you have been thinking about investigating a purchase or refinance, now may be the time - give me a call or email and let me know how I can help.

More hot economic news - Retail Sales in general were on fire, and when factoring out vehicle purchases, it was the best number in over a year. Again, more good economic news, but not good for Bond prices or home loan rates.

As if that weren’t enough, another unexpected event arrived when the Bank of England (like our Federal Reserve Bank) surprised international financial markets by raising its benchmark interest rate (like our Fed Funds Rate) by .25%, sparking a sharp drop in their markets as investors became rattled. The sharp sell-off in Great Britain quickly spilled over to the US, as their rates are on par with ours, and will now become more competitive investments as compared to our own US Bonds.

HERE’S SOME MORE GOOD NEWS - IT’S TAX TIME! OH…YOU MEAN YOU DON’T ENJOY GATHERING ALL YOUR FINANCIAL AND TAX DOCUMENTS? OK, MOST PEOPLE DON’T - BUT THE TIPS FOUND IN THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW WILL HELP YOU GET THROUGH THE PROCESS QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY, AND GET TO THE REAL GOOD NEWS - A COMPLETED 2006 TAX RETURN.

Forecast for the Week

“I’VE FALLEN…AND I CAN’T GET UP!” (Bond prices, last week) And when Bond prices fall, home loan rates are on the rise. But could Bonds get to their feet this week and help home loan rates improve? This coming week will certainly provide some “juice” to trade on, and likely cause some motion - but the direction of that movement will fully depend on the flavor of the news.

Remember that Bonds and home loan rates hate inflation…and some big inflation news is in store with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. There will also be news from the Manufacturing sector sprinkled throughout the week, and Housing will gain some attention on Thursday with the latest Housing Starts and Building Permits data. If the economic data comes in suggesting a slower economy and lower inflation, Bonds will likely regain their legs and help home loan rates improve. But if the news has that familiar scent of inflation…Bond prices will head lower and home loan rates will worsen.

The chart below shows the “floors” that can help to support Bonds from falling too far down on Bond and home loan rate unfriendly news…but also shows that Bond pricing fell right through two floors last week, causing home loan rates to rise.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 12, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

THE TAX MAN COMETH

It’s that time again…time to start gathering all of that dreaded documentation for your tax preparer to send to good old Uncle Sam! And even though this may seem like a very painful process, taking just a few simple steps right now will make your tax planning far less painful than you think.

STEP ONE: Start by reviewing a copy of last year’s tax return, and make a quick list of all the documents or statements that were needed to complete the return. Examples would be W2 forms from employers, 1099 forms for income earned but with no withholding for taxes, 1098 forms documenting all interest paid on a mortgage, interest and dividend income from banks and other financial institutions, a statement for stocks and bonds that were sold during the year, donations that were made to charities, and property tax statements. Many tax accountants will provide a checklist for you, but if you do not have access to one, simply hit this hotlink: TAX PREP CHECKLIST and use this generic checklist as a guide.

STEP TWO: In the coming weeks, you’ll be receiving tax documents in the mail. Some will be easy to identify, as many institutions use envelopes marked “Important Tax Document”, but others do not - so check all your incoming mail very carefully. When a tax document arrives, grab your checklist, mark the item as received, and keep it all in one place like a file or large envelope marked “2006 TAXES”. That way, when it is time to meet with your accountant, all documents will be stored in one location.

NOTE: the IRS rules require that most tax documentation like W2’s be mailed out to you by January 31st. If you do not receive all needed tax documentation by February 15th, contact the company that was supposed to send it out, and request the documentation be mailed immediately. If the company fails to comply, contact the IRS at 1-800-829-1040 for help. Additionally, if a statement is received and the amount reported appears to be incorrect, contact the company who sent it to you right away, and ask that the form be corrected. Within a few days a new form should be mailed, and when received it will be marked “Corrected”.

With the tax laws constantly changing and the complexity of filing taxes increasing every day…having a great tax accountant will save you time and money. In fact, most tax accountants find enough missed deductions or changes to more than cover their nominal fees. And, working with a professional can help ensure that your return is as accurate as possible, and may help avoid a painful audit. During 2006, audits for individuals increased by 6% across the board. Business owners need to be on their toes too, as audits for Partnerships increased by 15%, and S-Corporations by 34%!

It pays to invest in working with a tax professional. If you are in need of a referral, contact me - I’d be happy to help provide one to you.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 15 – January 19

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Jan
18

January 8 2006

Mortgage Market Guide   12:12 pm      Comments Off

For the week of Jan 08, 2007 — Vol. 5, Issue 2

Last Week in Review

“START ME UP…IF YOU START ME UP I’LL NEVER STOP” (Rolling Stones) And the New Year sure “started up” at double speed, but the action was destined to make more than a few grown men cry before the week was out. Bond pricing had improved throughout the holiday shortened trading week, and the stage was set for the high impact Jobs Report to be unleashed on Friday. But some interesting moves were going on behind the scenes on Thursday afternoon…here’s what happened.

Late in the day on Thursday, economists reduced their official estimate for Friday’s Jobs Report number from 115,000 to 100,000, clearly indicating much lowered expectations in new job growth. This was largely based on ADP - the nation’s largest payroll processor - coming out earlier in the week saying that their numbers indicated net job losses for the previous month, no gains at all! Additionally, the Fed Meeting Minutes showed the Fed believes that US job growth is cooling. So…when Bond traders saw the late change in analysts formal expectations, they gobbled up even more Bonds ahead of the Jobs Report - figuring that the number would likely come in low, Bond prices would rally, and home loan rates would improve.

But this was not to be. When the actual numbers from the Jobs Report hit, Traders were stunned to see an unexpectedly high December Jobs number of 167,000, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at a very low 4.5%. Additionally, the Average Hourly Earnings in December shot 8 cents higher or 0.5%, far ahead of the 0.3% rise expected. This brings the average US hourly rate of pay to just over $17. And a deeper look at the hourly earnings figure showed year over year wages increased by 4.2%, which is the highest in four years!

Traders quickly realized they were positioned on the wrong side of the market and began to sell, sparking a move lower in Bond pricing, and giving back some of the gains made previously in the week. But after the smoke cleared, Bonds still ended up on the plus side for the week overall, with home loan rates improving by about .125% across the board.

JUST LIKE THE PROGRAMMING OF VCR’S IN YEARS PAST…THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS BYPASSING MANY OF US WITH THEIR NEW LINGO AND ABBREVIATIONS NOW FOUND EVERYWHERE, IN EMAILS, TEXT MESSAGES, INSTANT MESSENGER, MESSAGE BOARDS. AND IF YOU AREN’T ON BOARD WITH TSL (TEXTING AS A SECOND LANGUAGE), YOU MIGHT BE SOL (SORELY OUT OF LUCK). SO IF YOU’RE TRYING TO COMMUNICATE WITH SPEED AND EASE IN TODAY’S TECH-SAVVY WORLD, READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW…AND BECOME PART OF THE ABBREVIATION NATION.

Forecast for the Week

So…will the action cool down in the coming week, or will the wild ride continue for Bonds and home loan rates? In terms of economic news, the week ahead will be fairly slow, until Friday’s potentially high impact Retail Sales Report. And whenever the market lacks economic reports and data to trade on, technical indicators like historic highs, lows and trendlines will generally take center stage.

And the technicals are on our side, in terms of seeing Bond pricing and home loan rates stabilizing, and perhaps even seeing more improvement in the coming days. Take a look at the chart below, which shows how Bonds have used the 50-day Moving Average (which is basically the average of where Bond pricing has been for the past 50 days) as a floor of support. This 50-day Moving Average is rising underneath Bonds feet, helping pricing move higher, meaning home loan rates move lower. And even after Friday’s decline, Bonds clawed their way back above the 50-day Moving Average…and if they can hold their ground during the coming week, the improving trend appears to be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.

Bottom line: in the absence of any surprises during the week, Bond pricing and home loan rates should stabilize and perhaps improve slightly, due to the positive technical picture currently in place.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 05, 2007)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

WYSIWYG

“What You See Is What You Get?” Whoa…not when it’s loaded into a long acronym like the above. And unless you have a teenager or tech-savvy kid - or are a text-messaging junkie in your own right - these acronyms can leave you scratching your head and feeling very “out of the loop” when someone hits you with one. The good news? You’re not alone, and there’s an answer.

Speed and ease are the names of the game, and messages with jumbled letters have now become a part of our everyday lives. Everywhere you turn, codes, abbreviations and acronyms are being used…but these quick methods of communication can leave you frustrated, confused and unable to respond if you just can’t break the code.

So where do you turn if you need to find a solution in a hurry? Pulling out the dusty Webster’s dictionary won’t help…but visiting www.stands4.com will.

With a few clicks of the mouse, you can access acronyms and abbreviations, and even search by industry, like medical, internet, computing, business, international and more. Simply enter the confusing phrase in the search engine, or search from A to Z by clicking on the first letter of the acronym or abbreviation…and voila…a list will appear with the most likely answers to your query. And, if you want to start including a few acronyms or abbreviations into your own emails or text messages, but do not know the secret codes, perform a reverse lookup. Just enter the phrase, hit search, and a list will appear.

With the increased demand for text and instant messaging, expanding your tech vocabulary and learning a few codes will allow you to communicate with confidence and ease. And if you really want to be a hip parent, the next time you receive a message from your child loaded up with CUL8R (See You Later) and BRB (Be Right Back)…log onto the site, grab a few codes in response, and send your own abbreviated message…you will leave them #:-) and LOL (Shocked and Laughing Out Loud)!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 08 – January 12

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Jan
18

For the week of Jan 01, 2007 — Vol. 4, Issue 53

Happy Holidays!

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. As the New Years holiday is being observed, we hope you enjoy the special article below on how to build business credit, by Edward Jamison - one of the nation’s foremost authorities on credit.

The MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY is the industry’s leading publication of this type, and I am pleased to provide this valuable resource to you. If you feel any of your family, friends, clients or associates would benefit from keeping up-to-date on market and economic trends in this easy to read format, please let me know, and I would be more than happy to add them free of charge.

Best wishes to you, and please do not hesitate to contact me if I may be of any assistance to you at this time!

Business Credit Cards - A Credit Score’s Best Friend

You have probably already established personal credit…so now it is time for you to strengthen your financial fortress and safeguard your credit score by building business credit.

Business credit comes with good news and bad news. The good news is more times than not it does not get reported on your personal credit report…and the bad news is also that it does not get reported on your personal credit report. That is why it is so important that you have established personal credit before heeding this advice.

Unless you’re Microsoft, chances are good that you have to sign personally in order to qualify for a business credit card. But other than the inquiry that shows up on your credit report when you apply for the business credit card, 90% of all business credit cards do not get reported on your personal credit report unless you default on the payment. If you do, then the account will get reported to your personal credit report and your credit score will be affected negatively.

Now why is this good for your credit score?

Well, the credit score only analyzes what it sees on your personal credit report. And given the fact that 30% of the credit score is derived from the ratio between your credit balance and limits on your report, not having a “maxed-out” business credit card showing on your credit report can be a very helpful thing for your score.

For example, let’s assume you have $50,000 in revolving credit available to spend. Let’s also assume that your credit score is a 730. If you were to go and max out these credit cards the next day, once the balance reflects on your credit report, your 730 credit score may drop to a 650. Now let’s look at the same situation where you have a 730 credit score but the $50,000 you spend is on business credit cards that do not report to your credit report. Your 730 credit score will remain a 730 credit score, and you will be able to get favorable financing even though you are carrying the same debt load as the previous example where the score dropped to 650. The credit score only scores what it can see; business credit that is not being reported on the personal credit report does not affect the score whatsoever.

But it is important to pay on time - if you do get business credit that shows on your personal credit report even if you are not late, that credit is treated exactly as if it was personal credit and having the business credit will not yield any benefit to your credit score whatsoever.

I suggest building your personal credit first before you attempt to build your business credit card portfolio because you do have to have good credit being reported to qualify for these business accounts. More good news - the credit card companies do not require that you have a business license or a corporation, and the simple classification of being “self-employed” is typically enough to pass muster.

My two favorite banks for business credit cards are American Express and MBNA. A good start would be to apply for a regular American Express charge card that needs to be paid in full each month and also an American Express revolving business card like “Blue for Business” that you can pay minimum monthly payments on. MBNA has a business credit card called Platinum Plus for business, which affords a low rate and a high credit limit. American Express will not report to your personal credit report regarding your business credit card unless you are approximately 120 days late. MBNA on the other hand will report the account to your personal credit report once you become 30 days late.

The flexibility and control that business credit cards give you with your personal credit score are worth their weight in gold, and in many cases will allow you to save countless thousands in interest on your next mortgage by affording you the highest credit score possible.

Edward Jamison, Esq.

For a limited time, get Edward Jamison’s highly acclaimed Credit Scoring Educational DVD and Book “Credit Savvy” at almost 90% off the retail price. Click here to learn more.

Edward Jamison is a credit scoring expert and concentrates his law practice solely on credit related issues. Since graduating from Duquesne Law School in 1999, Edward Jamison has helped hundreds of clients dramatically increase their credit scores in order to get better rates on their loans. A true master of the credit system, when needed to, he has successfully sued the three major credit bureaus and creditors to obtain results for his clients.

Edward Jamison is the brainchild behind the product Credit Savvy, numerous computer software products, and has appeared on television shows to educate consumers on credit scoring and identity theft. Edward has also written nationally published articles on the Fair Credit Reporting Act and Credit Scoring.

Certified by the State Bar of California to give CLE seminars to California Attorneys, he is a nationally recognized speaker on the issue of credit scoring and identity theft and is the Attorney of choice for credit related issues for contacts at the following companies: Platinum Capital, Washington Mutual, California Association of Mortgage Brokers, Merrill Lynch and numerous law firms.

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.
As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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